How High is High: Breaking the Negative Feedback Loop in Automated Replenishment
Identified critical flaw in Walmart's automated replenishment, developed custom OSA algorithm, and drove $3M incremental revenue across two P&G categories in 4 months.
While working as Replenishment Analyst at P&G's dedicated Walmart Canada team, our founder identified a critical flaw in RetailLink's automated replenishment that was causing golden stores to systematically underperform. By developing a custom On-Shelf Availability algorithm using R and Knime, he proved automation was creating negative feedback loops - and convinced stakeholders to pilot a counterintuitive solution: strategic overstocking. The pilot delivered immediate results, scaling from 20 stores to all-Canada implementation and expanding to P&G's highest-margin category.
Key Results
The Transformation
The Challenge
- Walmart's RetailLink automated replenishment creating negative feedback loops: when products stayed in backend instead of shelves, sales dropped → system interpreted as 'low demand' → ordered less next cycle → perpetual decline to single-digit weekly forecasts
- Bulky Femme Care products required backend storage with manual shelf restocking, if stores didn't bring products from backend to shelves on time, availability gaps weren't visible to RetailLink's automated system
- Golden stores with initially excellent sales systematically declining over time, pattern repeated across entire category, suggesting system-level issue rather than true demand problems
- Hundreds of SKU-store combinations made manual intervention impossible, needed data-driven approach to identify which low sales were availability issues vs. genuine low demand
Our Approach
Algorithm Development
- Developed custom On-Shelf Availability (OSA) algorithm using RetailLink POS data, inventory levels, and R/Knime workflows to identify availability gaps vs. true low demand patterns across golden stores
Pilot Design & Stakeholder Conviction
- Proposed "How High is High" pilot: strategic overstocking of 10-20 Femme Care products in ~20 golden stores across Canada to break negative feedback loop
- Presented findings to Walmart replenishment and buyers alongside my manager and sales lead, making bold commitment: "If this doesn't work after one month, my manager and I will rent a U-Haul and personally buy back excess inventory from all Ontario stores"
Rapid Scale & Expansion
- Launched pilot within one week of approval, visible results within two weeks led to immediate expansion request
- Scaled to all-Canada implementation after one month of positive performance, then applied methodology to Shaving category (P&G's highest-margin product line)
The Outcome
Revenue & Market Impact
- $3M incremental revenue generated: +$2M Femme Care POS (4% increase), +$1M Shaving POS (4% increase) within 4-month period
- 10% reduction in stockouts, 5% increase in on-time deliveries
Recognition & Strategic Value
- Pearl Award from P&G Walmart Canada team recognizing exceptional business impact
- Methodology adopted as standard practice for high-velocity, bulky product categories, proof that questioning automation with data-driven analysis delivers measurable outcomes
What the Client Says
Arturo quickly became the go-to data person—organized, diligent, and a strong partner. We co-created ecommerce replenishment processes; his out-of-the-box thinking consistently improved how the team worked.
Bebul Soomro
Director of Supply Chain, Procter & Gamble
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